The Turmoil in the US House of Representatives Reiterates the Importance of Increased EU Leadership on Ukraine

Ank Kumar. European Commission headquarters at the Berlaymont Building, Brussels, Belgium. Wikimedia Commons.

Jack Greenspan, Columbia University

210 votes for Hakeem Jeffries. 194 votes for Steve Scalise. Eight votes for Jim Jordan. Repeat this a few times, change around the names and numbers a bit, and you’ll have just described the 2023 US House of Representatives speakers elections.

While the Speakership was vacant, the House was paralyzed: it failed to consider any pending legislation despite the terrorist attack in Israel and the impending expiration of Congress’s stopgap funding measures. Congress’s inability to pass legislation will likely impact the ability of the US to send aid to its allies, particularly Ukraine. Even though the House has a new Speaker, Mike Johnson, fault lines persist between House GOP moderates and conservatives. Future instability in the House is a real possibility.

President Biden is still pushing to take an active role in supporting America’s interests abroad; he recently asked Congress for $105 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and other US allies. However, divisions within the House Republican Caucus may lead to a government shutdown if Speaker Johnson is unable to corral his members to support a final budget proposal. Because the Department of Defense would have about $5 billion in funding even in the event of a larger government shutdown, President Biden could still provide a certain amount of aid to Ukraine in the event of such a disruption. Yet, this DOD funding would not be able to be extended once the $5 billion runs out. For humanitarian aid, which would run out much earlier than defense spending, the situation is dire. A government shutdown would kneecap America’s ability to support Ukraine.

The failure of Congress to act places a greater onus on the European Union and its member states to spearhead support for Ukraine. However, this would be the exception, rather than the rule: when it comes to security issues, the European Union and its member states are not typically in the driver's seat. The European Union has long been criticized for its reluctance to address security concerns and many European members of NATO have consistently failed to supply the required 2% of GDP contribution to NATO that membership in the organization technically demands.

Europe’s support for Ukraine has suffered from a similar lack of leadership. President Macron has, at times, tried to make overtures to the Russians by calling for de-escalation and peace talks, showing his reluctance to join other European countries in solidarity with Ukraine. Even Poland, which has been a strong supporter of Ukraine due to its own vulnerability to Russian aggression, stopped supplying weapons to Ukraine at the height of a trade dispute over grain in a last-ditch attempt by the Polish government to raise its approval ratings ahead of the parliamentary elections. Fortunately, Polish politician Donald Tusk’s likely ascension to power would mean stronger support for Ukraine from Poland.

None of this is to say that the European Union hasn’t already increased its commitment to security concerns since the start of the war in Ukraine. European nations have given a combined total of nearly €68 billion in military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine since February 2022, the vast majority of which has been military aid. The EU itself has recently made a €50 billion weapons commitment, a significant sum of money for an organization with little precedent for disbursing direct military assistance. Most significantly, Finland joined NATO, a large change in foreign policy for a country that has historically attempted to thread a neutral line between Russia and the West.

Despite the large contribution of European nations toward Ukrainian security, much remains to be done. In order to fill the temporary vacuum left by the US’s political crisis, EU member states must step up military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine has turned into a war of attrition, meaning that Ukraine will require long-term security commitments in order to counter the Russian military. These commitments are especially important for Ukraine, as it has been much more reliant on foreign assistance than Russia.

What would increased European security commitments look like? European countries, especially Ukraine’s neighbors, must be unconditional in their support for Ukraine. Conditioning weapons transfers on matters unrelated to the war, such as Poland’s angling for better grain shipment terms, only serve to divide European support for Ukraine and delay vital assistance. European countries must not only make additional commitments, but also keep their existing commitments. Their follow-through will be tested; for example, the EU committed to delivering one million 155-millimeter artillery shells to Ukraine by March 2024, a promise that may not be fulfilled due to a lack of defense manufacturing capacity in the EU.

The EU and its member states nonetheless face an institutional challenge that they must overcome to step into this greater leadership role. The European Union, by its nature a confederation of sovereign countries, is much less centralized in its policy-making than the US. The terrorist attack in Israel highlighted this fact: Ursula von der Leyen made strong claims in support of Israel which some member states publicly disagreed with. If the EU is to take a larger leadership role in security issues, its leaders and institutions must be empowered to speak out on rapidly-developing political situations without fear of blowback. It must also be able to effectively punish member states that are not compliant with overall EU policy. While this may cause temporary backlash, the EU will be less effective if it doesn’t centralize security policy among a key set of leaders and institutions. The EU is a powerful organization, as evidenced by its recent €50 billion military aid commitment to Ukraine. However, security policy requires quick and resolute decision-making—as demonstrated by the recent terrorist attack in Israel and the Israeli government’s response.

The House has gotten a new Speaker, but the discord within the institution has shown that domestic American political strife can have a debilitating effect on foreign policy goals. To ensure that Ukraine continues receiving the support it needs, the European Union and its member states must increase aid commitments and ensure that they fulfill these commitments. In order to accomplish these goals, though, the European Union must be emboldened to take action on security issues and keep its member states in line.