Rising in the Polls, Orban’s Challenger Sends Mixed Messages

Peter Magyar and Viktor Orban in the European Union Parliament © European Union 2024 - Alain Rolland

By Jack Greenspan

Viktor Orban is in a precarious political situation. Multiple polls, including those from allied pollsters, show that his party, Fidesz, has lost its lead in the polls (Gergely). Fidesz’s falling popularity comes in the context of a struggling Hungary: inflation was 17% in 2023 (“Economic forecast for Hungary”), and while wages have grown in response, rising fuel prices in particular have been hurting residents (“Last Fuel Price Hike Announced for 2024”). Compounding these woes is the 19 billion Euros of withheld EU cohesion funds due to Hungary’s poor treatment of migrants (“Hungarian President Resigns”), a billion of which has been permanently lost. These funds, which would have been used for infrastructure projects and economic development (“Why Has EU Stripped Hungary Of 1 Billion Euro?”), represent a concrete rebuttal of Orban’s soft authoritarianism by the European Commission. Finally, Fidesz has been rocked by scandals, ranging from corruption (“Hungarian Whistleblower Releases Audio”) to the pardoning of a convicted pedophile by the country’s former Minister of Justice (“Hungarian President Resigns”).

Into the wake of an embattled Fidesz steps Peter Magyar. Magyar, a member of the European Parliament, is the leader of the Tisza Party, a center-right coalition of anti-Orban forces. A former senior official in Fidesz, Magyar has a unique legitimacy with which to discuss the failings of the Orban administration. Add onto that his sharp oratory, resulting in viral videos and increased media coverage, Viktor Orban faces a difficult challenge. While support for Magyar’s Tisza Party has grown by two-thirds since its foundation in May 2024, overtaking Fidesz in the Politicos’ polling average (“Hungary — National parliament voting intention”), Magyar seems to spend more time bashing Orban than promoting his own agenda. Examining his record, though, international observers should realize that his policies do not represent a complete break from the right-wing populism of the Orban administration. 

Magyar aligns with many international critics of Orban on his disregard for European rule of law. Directly addressing Viktor Orban in the European Parliament, Magyar affirmed that “Hungary is in the NATO and western clubs, even if you speak of a new world order” (“Magyar Péter felszólalása az Európai Parlamentben”). Additionally, Magyar aligned the Tisza Party with the ruling EPP, led by Ursula von der Leyen. Magyar wishes to align Hungary with its western partners, although this is not unconditional support, with him opposing military aid to Ukraine (Wanat, “Orbán's nemesis”).

Despite breaking with the Orban regime on Hungary’s relationship with the EU, Magyar does not take a more lenient stance on migration issues. In fact, he criticized Orban for his inability to maintain the integrity of Hungary’s borders, criticizing Orban for permitting “60,000 Asian economic migrants [into the country] without consulting the Hungarian people” (“Magyar Péter felszólalása az Európai Parlamentben”). While Magyar talks about improving relations with the EU, his position seems opposed to the EU’s stance on migration in Hungary, which demands a more humane approach. This implicit opposition brings into question whether Hungary, under the leadership of Magyar, would even see the rest of its 19 billion Euros in solidarity funds unfrozen. 

Magyar also differs from Brussels on Ukraine. While he supports Ukraine’s independence, Magyar has opposed sending weapons in support of their war effort, in contrast to the manifesto of his own EU parliamentary party (Wanat, “Diplomacy Wars”). This is in contrast to his previous support for economic aid and his fundraiser in support of a bombed children’s hospital in Ukraine (Fenyo and Komuves). However, in government, he would have veto power over European Commission decisions, setting up a test for the extent to which Magyar will support Ukraine. This support may be particularly tested by the renewal of the European Peace Facility, which provides EU-sanctioned military aid to Ukraine, and the provision of emergency aid plans, which cannot be coordinated as an EU-wide package due to Hungarian opposition (Vinocur, et al.). Donald Trump’s sharp turn away from supporting Ukraine makes European Union support of the country all the more important, causing a future decision by Magyar on EU military aid to have European-wide effects. 

In a sense, Magyar’s criticisms of Orban for being too accommodating of immigrants should not be too surprising. Magyar himself, after all, was a former Fidesz minister. Neither should Magyar’s ambivalent stance towards Ukraine: in a country with only 22% of the public supporting military aid to Ukraine (European Parliament), his stance may be the result of Hungary’s political realities. Nonetheless, both stances represent real breaks from the consensus among EU leaders. Outside observers would do well to be balanced in their expectations for Magyar. If he wins, he will represent the right-wing mood of Hungarians, but with a softer tone towards the rest of Europe. Magyar could follow the mold of other right-wing party leaders who have moderated their stances towards the EU, such as Georgia Meloni and Geert Wilders. If he wins, though, only time will tell where Magyar will choose to position himself within the broader European context. 

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